The Sharp Knives

Belief in manmade global warming has become an ideology (for evidence of environmentalists running amok with the idea, see the Gristmill blog), and as with any ideology dissenters must be weeded out and killed. And so the sharp knives are coming out for the dozen or so global warming dissenters who are still left. Two dissenters currently in the crosshairs are Oregon's George Smith and Delaware's David Legates.

Now, I believe that humans are partly (perhaps mostly--the data isn't clear) responsible for present day global warming (January 2007 was just reported as the warmest month in recorded history), and that both Smith and Legates are mostly wrong.

But in science, it is not a crime to be wrong. Throughout science skeptics have played important roles in keeping the true believers honest, in proding and poking at their data and theories until they are water tight. The skeptics play an important role, and if they are indeed wrong they will harmlessly fade away with time, as the truth ever more forcefully emerges. The damage that skeptics do, in the long run, is virtually nil.

Of course, true global warming believers believe that the problem is so large and so overwhelming that any delay induced by the skeptics is too much to accept. But it's not the skeptics who are preventing action on global warming, it is the politicians. Nothing prevents Bush or Ted Kulongowski from taking action on global warming today--certainly not a dozen skeptics--and a majority of Congress would follow Bush if he did. Nothing prevents the majority of Americans favoring action on global warming, either, but in fact Americans reelected Bush in 2004 despite knowing full well about his almost immediately breaking his campaign promise to regulate carbon dioxide when he was elected in 2000. Are a dozen skeptics provoking so much doubt in the average American's mind, despite the now daily headlines that warn global warming is a big problem?

In any case, there may not be much Bush or Kulongowski or any politician can do about global warming for a long time--you should read Robert Samuelson's op-ed in today's Washington Post.

The dirty secret about global warming is this: We have no solution. About 80 percent of the world's energy comes from fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas), the main sources of man-made greenhouse gases. Energy use sustains economic growth, which -- in all modern societies -- buttresses political and social stability. Until we can replace fossil fuels or find practical ways to capture their emissions, governments will not sanction the deep energy cuts that would truly affect global warming.

Considering this reality, you should treat the pious exhortations to "do something" with skepticism, disbelief or contempt. These pronouncements are (take your pick) naive, self-interested, misinformed, stupid or dishonest. Politicians mainly want to be seen as reducing global warming. Companies want to polish their images and exploit markets created by new environmental regulations. As for editorialists and pundits, there's no explanation except superficiality or herd behavior.

The only real solution to global warming is new technologies. (You rarely hear this on Gristmill.) Conservation, certainly a laudable goal, will not work--it may cut 10-20% of our emissions, but that is practically nothing compared to the 70-80% that is needed to halt global warming by about 2050.

Removing George Smith as the Oregon state climatologist will not help Kulongowski reduce Oregon emissions one iota, and to me it looks like nothing but a political move. We need a few skeptics around to keep us honest, and from what I've seen Smith is one of the more reasonable and articulate skeptics out there. But Smith is probably as good as gone. Hey, at least then the governor will be doing something.